A strategic trap or an alliance of convenience?
Syed Aaliya
The China and Pakistan relationship has always been famously portrayed as “an all-weather friendship”: sturdier than steel, and deeper than oceans. It seems that the great country protects its friend from economic collapse, military threats, and political isolation. Is China playing a protector, or is it playing a pawn against its bigger global ambitions with Pakistan?
To find this out, we have to check all the layers of their relationship-economics, militaries, and even the levels of diplomatic coordination-to see the degree to which they align with their hatred for India. In Pakistan’s desperate cling to China for survival, it is China which treats Pakistan like a tool against India and uses it to increase its own regional influence. So-called guide-follower dynamics are simply a calculated move wherein China has made sure that Pakistan remains dependent on both political and economic terms and serves the interest of Beijing.
The most visible relationship aspect between China and Pakistan is economic cooperation under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). CPEC was launched as one of the flagship projects of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Pakistan was being offered its golden ticket to an economic success. Billions of dollars were promised for infrastructure development, energy projects, and industrial growth. But after ten years it all started, ground reality paints a different picture altogether.
While it is increasing the economy of Pakistan, it is sinking the country into an unpayable debt. All of these projects are financed on loans from China with high rates of interest and growing inability of Pakistan to return has led the country to its grave economic situations. The pressure of debt servicing has weakened Pakistan’s financial independence as it had to surrender important national assets into Chinese control. The gateway to Pakistan into the global economy was Gwadar Port; however, that gateway has now been operated by China for 40 years without its voices ever being heard and protesting Chinese exploitation.
A real guardian would sincerely care about the welfare of their ally. Yet again, China seems to be carrying out the approach of investing into Pakistan more of the same patterns as it adopts in Africa and Sri Lanka wherein China invests a lot but often leads countries to become heavily dependent on the former. Consequently, this gives the impression of China using a situation to maintain control and eventually exploit Pakistan while using the approach in other counties. China’s pattern is clear: they offer large loans to countries that are struggling financially, making them dependent on China. Then, China gains control over important resources in those countries. The big question is:Is China trying to trap its ally (Pakistan) in a financial crisis, or is China just trying to show dominance while pretending to protect them? But Pakistan’s support doesn’t just lie in infrastructure and economy; instead, it’s a deep patronage in terms of military cooperation. China, over the years, has sold Pakistan advanced fighters, missile systems, submarines, and surveillance capability.
China’s support for Pakistan extends beyond military aid; it is part of a larger strategic agenda to counterbalance India. By keeping Pakistan strong, China forces India to divide its resources and attention across two borders: its western border with Pakistan and its northern border with China. China also plays an important role in safeguarding Pakistan from international pressure, particularly on terrorism-related concerns. India has frequently attempted to get the United Nations to name Pakistani-based terrorists as global threats, but each time, China has used its veto power to obstruct.
A true guardian would push its ally toward peace and stability. But it has instead strengthened Pakistan’s extremist elements, knowing well that the instability they create benefits Beijing’s long-term strategy of keeping South Asia divided and India engaged in constant security threats.
Pakistan has been on the back foot internationally because of its failure to handle terrorism, economic mismanagement, and human rights violations. But whenever Pakistan was under international pressure—be it over terror financing, human rights violation in Baluchistan, or financial bailouts from theInternational Monitory Fund (IMF)—China was there to bail it out.
China has blocked resolutions against Pakistan in the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), thus ensuring that Pakistan did not get blacklisted despite obvious terror financing networks. In the UN, China always supports Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir, trying to globalize the issue when India categorically says that Kashmir is an internal affair.
China supports Pakistan but with conditions. While China protects Pakistan, at the same time, it is using Pakistan’s instability to get advantages in the negotiations with the West. The more Pakistan remains unstable, the more China wins diplomatic deals from global powers with Pakistan remaining in a dependent relationship with China’s support.
In response to the provocation, India has really been quite effective in countering this nexus between China and Pakistan by way of military preparedness, economic resilience, and diplomatic boldness. Border security of India is up by manifold with the help of modern surveillance technology along the LoC and LAC and a more solid military presence.
This has economically freed India from the shackles of reliance on Chinese products through initiatives like Atmanirbhar Bharat, also encouraging the manufacturing industry in the homeland. Thus, India has been able to build strength in its trade with Southeast Asia, Europe, and the United States in a manner that will not be able to rely upon the Chinese economy.
India has diplomatically outsmarted both Pakistan and China by forging strategic alliances. ThroughQuadrilateral Security Dialogue(QUAD) (India, USA, Japan, Australia), it has negated China’s dominance in the Indo-Pacific. Deeper interaction with Gulf nations has helped it reduce Pakistan’s role in the Islamic world. India has also kept Pakistan under international radar concerning its connections with terrorism; thus, Islamabad has been left with half-hearted measures against blacklisting by FATF(Financial Action Task Force).
India should use smarter ways to weaken this alliance without a fight.One way is to focus on economic isolation. India can offer better investment options to neighbouring countries like Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan. By providing alternatives to China’s debt-driven investments, India can reduce China’s control over the region.
Another key strategy is to apply diplomatic pressure. India should keep pointing out China’s double standards on issues like terrorism and human rights in international forums. India could work with other democratic countries to challenge China’s growing influence and put pressure on Pakistan to act more responsibly, avoiding actions that destabilize the region.
Last but not least, the internal strength of India is paramount. The greatest defence against an external threat is a strong and stable country. With its improved economy, technology, and defence, India will not be easily influenced or manipulated by China or Pakistan in regional matters.
The very idea that China is a custodian of Pakistan is an illusion. On the one hand, Beijing is showering economic aid, military assistance, and diplomatic support; on the other, all this is purely for self-serving strategic interests. Pakistan has sold its sovereignty to China and turned itself into a vassal state which caters to the ambitions of Beijing rather than the interests of its people.
While India has countered this alliance by taking the path of resilience, self-reliance, and strategic alliances, the nexus China-Pakistan might go on provoking. But if India unites, readies itself well, and becomes forward-looking enough, their conspiracy will not flourish. The protector-dependent relationship, which is being hailed in the media as a friendship of convenience, turns out to be one of exploitationand the highest price is paid by Pakistan, not by India.
