With mounting debt, increasing Chinese control over critical infrastructure, and an economic model that benefits Beijing more than Islamabad, Pakistan must reconsider whether this so-called friendship is truly in its national interest or a slow march towards economic subjugation.
Israar Shahid
For decades, Pakistan has considered China its “all-weather friend,” a relationship deeply rooted in strategic, economic, and diplomatic cooperation. However, beneath the surface of this seemingly unshakable alliance lies a growing imbalance—one that increasingly positions China not as a benevolent partner, but as a dominant force shaping Pakistan’s future in ways that could prove detrimental to its sovereignty.From the massive debt burden under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Beijing’s expanding security footprint within Pakistani territory, China’s role in Pakistan is shifting from an ally to an overseer. The promises of economic upliftment have been overshadowed by concerns of debt entrapment, exploitation of natural resources, and an increasing dependence on China’s financial aid. With China tightening its grip on key sectors, is Pakistan heading towards economic and strategic subjugation rather than partnership? In this article of mine, I will highlight for my readers the evolving dynamics of China-Pakistan relations, examining how Beijing’s influence has transformed from economic assistance to a geopolitical liability. While some hail China as Pakistan’s economic saviour, growing evidence suggests that this alliance is more parasitic than symbiotic.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), initiated in 2015 under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), was projected as a transformational project that would uplift Pakistan’s economy. It promised better infrastructure, employment opportunities, and an economic revival that the country had long awaited. However, nearly a decade later, the reality paints a different picture. Instead of prosperity, Pakistan finds itself trapped in unsustainable debt, increasing Chinese control over its key assets, and a widening trade imbalance that favours Beijing.One of the most concerning aspects of this growing dependence is the Chinese dominance over Pakistan’s roads, railways, and ports, which are now strategically aligned with Beijing’s economic and military interests rather than Pakistan’s national development goals. The Karakoram Highway expansion, originally meant to boost trade, primarily serves China’s supply lines from Xinjiang to Gwadar. The Multan-Sukkur Motorway (M-5) and East Bay Expressway in Gwadar have similarly reinforced China’s logistical corridors, while Pakistan struggles with economic instability. The ML-1 Railway Project, a $10 billion initiative financed by Chinese loans, only adds to the burden, raising concerns about whether Pakistan can afford these projects without further compromising its sovereignty.
Perhaps the most telling example of China’s deepening hold over Pakistan is Gwadar Port. Marketed as Pakistan’s economic gateway, the port is now under Chinese lease for 40 years, significantly reducing Islamabad’s decision-making power. Instead of creating jobs for Pakistanis, it has become a Chinese-controlled zone, with restricted access to local businesses and protests by local fishermen who have been sidelined. This growing dominance is not limited to infrastructure alone—China has increasingly penetrated Pakistan’s energy sector, financing coal-based power plants under agreements that heavily favour Beijing while pushing Pakistan deeper into an energy crisis due to rising capacity payments and debt liabilities.
While China presents itself as Pakistan’s greatest economic partner, the numbers tell a different story. Pakistan owes over $30 billion to China, a figure that continues to rise with additional loans and infrastructure commitments. Instead of bringing financial stability, these projects have created an economic chokehold where Pakistan remains dependent on Chinese funding to keep projects running. The terms of these loans remain opaque, raising suspicions that Pakistan is falling into the same trap as other countries under the BRI, where failure to repay debts has resulted in China taking control of strategic assets. The case of Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port, which was handed over to Beijing on a 99-year lease after Colombo failed to meet repayment obligations, serves as a grim warning.Despite these alarming signs, Islamabad continues to deepen its reliance on Beijing, often at the cost of its own economic sovereignty. While China claims to be Pakistan’s closest ally, its actions indicate a strategic agenda focused on securing economic and military advantages rather than genuine development partnerships. With mounting debt, increasing Chinese control over critical infrastructure, and an economic model that benefits Beijing more than Islamabad, Pakistan must reconsider whether this so-called friendship is truly in its national interest or a slow march towards economic subjugation.
The writer is a student activist and can be reached at [email protected]
