Bangladesh experienced radicalization at times of unrest, and overemphasis on law enforcement and military can create vulnerabilities not just for Bangladesh but also its neighboring countries.
Darakshan Hassan Bhat
Bangladesh has been undergoing one of its worst political crises for several months. It started with student-led protests that evolved within some days into an agitation against a quota for jobs that spelled nationwide spread and violence in the streets: economic concerns, and immense discontent in the government. More than 600 people have been killed, public institutions have gone into chaos, and the long-time former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has escaped the country as more pressure and claims of authoritarian rule grew. The situation placed the country under the authority of a temporary government headed by Nobel Prize winner Muhammad Yunus, who faces the arduous task of stabilizing the country. This is not only a national issue but also affects South Asia’s economies, security, and politics. The destability in Bangladesh creates serious threats to its weak democracy and economic growth.
And for a long time, much of the economy backed the country’s textile and clothing industry. Garment workers’ strikes have shut down many factories and are affecting the lives of millions. Bangladesh is a significant part of the international textile export market. These shutdowns affect the supply chain as they delay and cause financial loss to those businesses that bank on Bangladeshi products. Countries that lie next to Bangladesh, and India is no exception where it buys raw materials and semi-finished goods, are experiencing an economic fallout. With increased inflation, economic uncertainty will spread to the closely traded neighbor countries of Bangladesh- Bhutan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. Political uncertainty in Bangladesh will further shape the politics of that region. Sheikh Hasina’s regime has remained close to the Indian regime, especially at times of trade and combat terrorism.
The political vacuum has thus introduced uncertainty about the future of such relations. There is very little clarity about the caretaker government’s intentions regarding cooperation with other countries. Meanwhile, China has already spent much of its capital on the infrastructure of Bangladesh and will try to capitalize on this crisis for greater influence in the area and increasing competition between Beijing and New Delhi over power.
Bangladesh is causing a crisis that raises concerns for the region, not just economically but also geopolitically. Political instability allows extremist groups to exploit it. Bangladesh experienced radicalization at times of unrest, and overemphasis on law enforcement and military can create vulnerabilities not just for Bangladesh but also its neighboring countries. Large-scale violence has brought much stress to the country’s security system, which is thus prone to cross-border terrorism and trafficking. India is at a greater risk for such problems because it has a long and weak border with Bangladesh. The refugee situation is worse in Bangladesh where around a million Rohingya refugees are waiting to go back to Myanmar. Ongoing instability puts the already fragile situation of refugee camps in danger.
This again poses problems for those proximate countries, depicting the peace of this region by creating humanitarian crises and security hazards. It also makes things complicated for other countries like India or Myanmar where people get worried due to their location. Here, risks for India are higher than in Bangladesh. There have always been strong trade and cultural bonds between India and Bangladesh. Shared work on border security issues and water sharing has remained the cornerstone of their bilateral partnership. However, such chaos may end up pulling all these agreements down.
Besides, the northeastern states of India that border Bangladesh already have a heavy level of security anxiety in terms of probable illegal migration and trafficking. This could make people even more negative towards India. Bangladesh needs the international community for this crisis. Regional groups exist, such as SAARC, and international bodies such as the United Nations can work to help talk between the different political groups, settle conflicts, and provide an opportunity for the caretaker administration to establish a solid platform for free and fair elections. The economic problems have to be brought down with the involvement of development agencies, like the World Bank and Asian Development Bank. They will be able to provide the resources necessary to rebuild institutions and get stability back in the economy. The interim government should be focused on clear governance, law and order, and making a good situation for elections in Bangladesh to come out of this crisis. The long-standing complaints need to be dealt with, and those responsible for past mistakes need to be held accountable to restore public trust. It also shows how the South Asian nations depend on one another, making it of importance to work together as a region in facing such challenges. Bangladesh unrest reminds us of the weakness of political systems in the region. It is a three-dimensional crisis that interfaces trade, security, and geopolitics, and it is what the world and the neighbors of Bangladesh do that will help stabilize this country in this time. Stability in Bangladesh will not just be the problem of that country; it is an imperative for the whole region since it brings to the forefront the fact of interdependence and shared responsibility for peace and prosperity to prevail in South [email protected]
